The Philippines Submarine Acquisition: Strategic Shifts and Geopolitical Implications
Yirong Han | 7 March 2025
Summary
The Philippines' acquisition of submarines – part of a defence modernisation program – marks a significant shift in regional dynamics, highlighting a response to China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea.
This move strengthens military capabilities and signifies a strategic commitment to deepen alliances with regional partners like India and South Korea. However, ongoing domestic political tensions will complicate modernisation efforts and unfavourably affect funding priorities.
In the short-term, there is very likely to be an increase in defence spending, while long-term consequences depend on regional stability and deterrent effectiveness against potential Chinese military actions.
On 13 February 2025, the Philippines announced plans to acquire at least two new submarines, a critical component of its defence modernisation program’s final phase, named “Horizons”. With a budget of around PHP 2 trillion (GBP 28 billion) allocated over the next 15 years, this initiative signifies a notable shift from internal to external defence, aimed at safeguarding maritime sovereignty in the contested waters of the South China Sea.
The South China Sea remains a persistent flashpoint for tension, characterised by ongoing territorial disputes and clashes between Chinese and Filipino vessels. In October 2024, confrontations included aggressive tactics such as boat ramming and water cannon usage. These incidents highlight the urgency of modernising naval capabilities in response to escalating tensions. The geopolitical implications of these encounters extend beyond bilateral tensions, as the Philippines' efforts to modernise may prompt regional actors to re-evaluate their strategies and alignments in response to a changing security environment.
The recent procurement aligns with broader defence initiatives, including a 2022 acquisition of a PHP 21.6 billion (GBP 295 million) BrahMos anti-ship missile system from India with plans for further orders, significantly enhancing the Philippines asymmetric warfare capabilities. Additionally, the Philippines seeks medium-range missiles and at least 40 fighter jets, contributing to a comprehensive defence structure. Strengthening relations with South Korea, highlighted by recent acquisitions such as two South Korean corvettes, underscores a strategic partnership aimed at countering China’s military influence. The Philippines’ integration of South Korea into the Quad reflects a commitment to multilateral security cooperation, prompted by the rising presence of over 286 Chinese vessels observed daily in the West Philippine Sea, an increase from 190 in 2021.
However, ongoing domestic political instability presents significant challenges for defence efforts. The impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte, supported by 240 lawmakers due to allegations of fund misuse and corruption, creates a politically unstable environment that complicates policymaking. Concerns about leadership and instability further hinder the Philippines' effective implementation of its modernisation plans. The impeachment process introduces complexities into the national defence strategy, as ongoing investigations into the Dutertes’ and Chinese influence may undermine public trust in the government and complicate defence narratives.
Existing funding challenges also represent significant economic implications. Chief Brawner has acknowledged the current defence budget as inadequate, necessitating exploration of both local and foreign funding sources. Regulatory limits on external loans for defence acquisitions stand at PHP 17 billion (GBP 236 million), constraining military enhancements. The political necessity of securing ongoing U.S. funding underscores the need for the Philippines to maintain international support amidst these challenges. However, balancing defence objectives with economic constraints could have wide-ranging impacts on key sectors and increase national debt, complicating the overall political landscape.
From an operational perspective, integrating submarines into the Philippine Navy is expected to enhance maritime effectiveness. These assets will improve surveillance and protection of the archipelago, enabling stronger assertions of sovereignty in contested areas. This modernisation indicates a commitment to strengthening defence forces amidst regional challenges.
The Philippines' efforts to strengthen security ties with allies such as India and South Korea reflect a strategy to counter China’s influence in the region. These alliances aim to support the Philippines' defence posture and facilitate collaborative responses to regional security issues. Strengthening these partnerships will be pivotal as the Philippines balances its national interests with the objectives of its allies.
The U.S. National Archives
Forecast
Short-term
The Philippines is likely to increase defence spending, which will have considerable impacts on its economy, with the priority of immediate military capacity building.
Medium-term
Strengthening defence alliances with India and South Korea will likely enhance regional security efforts. However, this realignment may prompt China to reassess its military strategies, potentially increasing geopolitical tensions.
The geopolitical implications of ongoing maritime encounters between Chinese and Filipino vessels will likely lead regional actors to re-evaluate their strategies and alignments in response to the Philippines' modernisation efforts.
Long-term
The overall impact on regional stability and security dynamics will likely depend on the effectiveness of the Philippines’ modernisation program and its ability to deter Chinese aggression. If successful, this initiative could reduce regional tensions, while failure may elevate conflict risks.