Abigail Darwish | 12 July 2024

Summary

• A year-long Russian cyber campaign has been underway ahead of the 2024 Paris Olympics, which will occur next month.

• Using AI, the campaign has spread disinformation on both the International Olympic Committee and the upcoming Olympic Games in Paris.

• Exacerbated by present geo-political tensions, namely the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, Russia’s cyber campaign will likely intensify in the coming weeks.

Since June 2023, Russia has been engaged in a cyber campaign targeting the 2024 Paris Olympics. Underpinning this two-pronged attack on both the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and the Olympic Games in Paris, Russia has fused its traditional tactics of disinformation with AI capabilities.

Microsoft has identified a network of Russian-affiliated actors spearheading this campaign, primarily on the platform Telegram. In June of last year, user ‘Storm-1679’ uploaded a deepfake of actor Tom Cruise deriding the IOC in a documentary titled “Olympics Has Fallen.”  Comparatively to most Influence Operations campaigns, the Cruise documentary alarmingly indicates the competency and capability of Russia’s AI disinformation capacities, coupling the video with falsified endorsements from Western media outlets. More recently, disinformation targeting the IOC has escalated, with the fabrication of 15 different France-based news sites claiming there to be rife corruption in the IOC.

Similarly, Russia’s cyber campaign has likewise sought to undermine the turn-out of the Games, deterring spectators from attending, due to an exhaustive series of deep fake videos. For instance, as a means of exaggerating the threat of terror attacks at the Paris Games, a news report from the Brussels-based outlet, Euro-news, alleged that Parisians were purchasing property insurance in expectation of terror attacks at the Olympics. Similarly, a video purporting to be from France24 news broadcasters maintained that a quarter of all tickets purchased for the Games had been returned out of fear of terror attacks. Disparaging of the event has further been reiterated by fabricated announcements from governmental agencies. Russian-affiliated actors have produced press releases by both the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the French General Directorate for Internal Security (DGSI), cautioning attendees that there is a risk of terrorism occurring at the Games. AI-generated images have also been employed as a technique to dissuade spectators, particularly Israelis, from attending. For example, amidst the ongoing Israel-Gaza War, ‘Storm-1679’ uploaded AI-generated images of graffiti in Paris that threatened violence against any Israelis attending the Olympics.   

Considering that the Games are to take place in a month’s time, it is likely that Russia’s cyber campaign will continue, if not intensify. The campaign itself can be understood as part of a wider anti-West initiative of Russia’s, with dwindling relations between the West and Russia having been exacerbated by the ongoing Ukraine-Russia War. However, it is equally worth noting the long-standing tradition of disinformation undertaken by Russia in the past Olympic Games, in fact, since the Cold War. Distinguishing today from the past, however, is improved technological capabilities and the rise of AI, which can render disinformation online to be more convincing and widespread.

Forecast

• Short-term

  • Russia’s cyber campaign will most likely intensify over the next month, where the Olympic Games are to begin on July 26.

  • It is also likely that this will continue over the two weeks the event is held.

• Long-Term

  • AI-created disinformation, ranging from deep-fake videos to AI-generated images, will continue to be an effective tool in future cyber-warfare. Whilst it is by no means a completely new method, AI cyber warfare will most likely become more advanced and more pervasive in spreading future disinformation online.

  • With weak diplomatic relations between Russia and the West, exacerbated by the ongoing Ukraine-Russia War, these attacks will likely continue after the Paris Olympics.