Post Israel-Hamas Conflict Turkey and NATO Relations
Tom Everill | 30 January 2024
Summary
Turkey's strategic NATO role is challenged by tensions with Israel and support for Hamas.
Erdogan's actions diverge from NATO norms, but economic ties with Israel persist.
Turkish rhetoric and policies strain NATO relations, risking its membership security.
Turkey, as NATO’s second largest army, has played an active role in the alliance since its 1952 accession and is valuable because of its control over the Bosphorus Strait and thus over Black Sea access.
Cracks in Turkey-NATO relations have deepened since Hamas’ 7th October 2023 attacks on key US ally Israel. In a December speech, Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan likened Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Adolf Hitler, and in recent months, Ankara has cancelled a long-planned state visit by the Israeli PM, recalled its Tel-Aviv ambassador and frozen energy cooperation talks. However, Turkey still facilitates the flow of Azeri oil to cargo ships heading to Israeli ports, indicating a reluctance to sever the countries’ extensive trade ties at a time of domestic economic hardship.
Istanbul, widely perceived as a safe haven and Hamas’ second largest base, since October 7th has seen a number of senior Hamas (a US-designated terror organisation) leaders received by the president. Erdogan’s actions represent a clear divergence with NATO norms, yet the alliance fails to punish this behaviour given Turkey’s strategic value. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has publicly stated that Erdogan’s support for Hamas does not present an issue as NATO is not involved in Israel’s war on Gaza, yet one can assume attitudes differ behind closed doors. This comes after heightened tension over Turkey’s 18-month delay of Sweden’s NATO accession and concerns over its relationship with Russia, including its purchase of the Russian S-400 air defence system in 2017.
These tensions have the potential to seriously affect Turkey’s standing in NATO. Erdogan must choose between realpolitik and his commitment to the Muslim world to avoid Turkey losing out on the security provided by NATO membership. Erdogan appears to feel sure of his position in NATO, but how far the relationship can be stretched remains to be seen.
Pedro Szekely/Wikimedia
Forecast
Short-term: Highly likely that Erdogan’s rhetorical support for the Palestinian people continues as policy remains unchanged.
Medium-term: Highly likely that Turkey and NATO continue partnership amid tension.
Long-term: Moderate risk of Turkey’s departure from the NATO military structure.