NATO Reaffirms Security Commitment in Kosovo and Bosnia amid Geopolitical Tensions
Mejreme Asllani | 2 April 2025
Summary
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s visit to Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo on 10 and 11 March 2025, reaffirmed NATO's commitment to regional stability and security amidst geopolitical strains.
This visit occurred at a critical juncture, marked by increasing regional political frictions, including separatist sentiments in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and Kosovo-Serbia tensions amplified by external influences.
The Western Balkans (WB) will likely remain a region of potential instability, requiring continued NATO and EU presence.
Context
Rutte's visit to Sarajevo and Pristina occurred during a period of significant importance and evolving global dynamics. The region’s vulnerability to external influences, internal division and separatism makes it a focal point for NATO’s continued security commitments. The ongoing war in Ukraine has heightened concerns about Russian influence in vulnerable regions like the WB, which serve as a potential area for destabilisation. The complex European Union (EU) enlargement has resulted in uneven progress across the region. Speculations about NATO’s presence spiked due to the new United States (US) administration’s relations with Europe and its role in the Russian-Ukraine war. This convergence of multifaceted factors urges a proactive commitment from NATO to ensure WB’s stability, which is crucial for Euro-Atlantic security.
Building on NATO’s legacy in WB since the Yugoslav Wars in the 1990s, Rutte’s visit reaffirmed NATO’s commitment to BiH and Kosovo. He engaged with political leaders and NATO officials from the NATO Kosovo Force (KFOR) and the NATO Advisory and Liaison Team (NALT), and international representatives of the European Union Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo (EULEX), OSCE and the Office of High Representative in BiH. The visit served to provide a substantive counter to Russian and pro-Russian disinformation efforts, addressing speculations concerning troop adjustments and NATO's regional role.
NATO maintains a presence in the WB through KFOR in Kosovo (approximately 4,700 troops from 29 nations) and EUFOR Althea in BiH (approximately 1,100 personnel from 23 countries) overseeing the Dayton Peace Agreement implementation. Both missions have increased troops in response to heightened tensions. NATO also supports Bosnia through its Sarajevo Headquarters, a Political Cell, and a Defence Capacity Building Package. This sustained presence demonstrates NATO's enduring commitment in both countries.
BiH faces internal challenges, notably Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik's separatist rhetoric, backed by Russia and Serbia. The Dayton Agreement ended the Bosnian War in 1995, effectively separating BiH into two entities that are predominantly Bosnian-Croat (the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina) and Serb (Republika Srpska). Dodik has actively sought to undermine state-level institutions and advocated for the separation of Republika Srpska. The court of BiH sentenced Dodik to a year in prison and banned him from public activities, for defying High Representative Christian Schmidt’s decisions. Schmidt had cancelled contentious laws, deemed violations of the Dayton Agreement, which Dodik had enacted to exclude the Office of the High Representative (OHR) from the list of authorities. As the final interpreter of BiH constitutions, Schmidt has the authority to impose such measures. In reaction to these developments, Dodik signed laws to ban BiH state security and judicial bodies from the Republika Srpska entity and subsequently adopted a draft constitution, which is in violation of the BiH constitution. Rutte addressed fears of renewed conflict, affirming NATO's commitment to sovereignty and territorial integrity, preventing a security vacuum and upholding the Dayton Agreement. NATO's firm stance is crucial to deter further escalation and provide reassurance to BiH people, who fear a renewed conflict.
Tensions also persist between Kosovo and Serbia, with the EU-led dialogue stalled without any practical result and marred by violence. Objections from the Serb community to Kosovo government measures in the northern part regarding the replacement of Serbian car plates and efforts to replace the Serbian Dinar currency with the Euro increased discontent. Subsequently, in May 2023, violent protests by Serb communities against Albanian mayors taking office in three northern municipalities resulted in violent clashes with KFOR, where over 30 KFOR soldiers were injured. These events, followed by the Banjska terrorist attack in September 2023, and the attack on the critical infrastructure of the Iber Lepenc canal in November 2024, have heightened these tensions, with Kosovo accusing Serbia of involvement. Rutte emphasised KFOR’s role in providing security in Kosovo and reiterated NATO’s support for the EU-led process. In support of this security role, EULEX and KFOR have strengthened their coordination through revised joint operational procedures, enhancing their ability to respond to potential joint operations and contributing to stability on the ground.
The WB faces disinformation campaigns from Russian state-sponsored media outlets and funded groups, with Serbia serving as a hub for disseminating disinformation throughout the region to counter Western influence. With the new US administration, its relations with Europe and the US’s cutting support for Ukraine have heightened the spread of narratives about US troops’ withdrawal from Kosovo and BiH. Moreover, Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti has accused Serbia of interfering in Kosovo’s 2025 parliamentary election with information operations, which the European Union Election Observation Mission confirmed. These efforts exploit ethnic divisions and existing vulnerabilities to sow discord and undermine Western influence.
Implications
Rutte's visit and NATO's reaffirmed commitment are likely to have a comforting effect on the WB. The increased EUFOR Althea troop presence will enhance response capabilities. The visit highlights NATO's role in the region's security architecture, complementing the EU's engagement. Rutte's support for the EU-facilitated dialogue underscores its importance for long-term stability, though the negotiation process remains uncertain in helping countries resolve disputes. It reinforces the need for NATO as the guarantor of peace, especially for non-members like BiH and Kosovo. Furthermore, the visit provides a valuable platform to publicly address and counter Russian and pro-Russian disinformation narratives targeting NATO’s role amidst geopolitical shifts. Russia supports nationalist forces like Dodik and Serbian President Alexander Vucic and potentially backs destabilising actions in Kosovo. Rute’s visit and Alliance’s unwavering commitment counter these destabilising narratives. Addressing political issues requires sustained diplomatic engagement from Euro-Atlantic institutions, particularly the EU and the US.
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
NATO will highly likely maintain its current operational posture in the WB through KFOR and EUFOR Althea to support local security forces, with potential troop adjustments based on the evolving security situation, particularly in any escalating tensions.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
The ongoing crisis in BiH will likely de-escalate with Dodik’s separatist actions for secession. Whereas, in Kosovo NATO will likely continue its presence to ensure security and mitigate Kosovor-Serbian tensions.
Long-term (>1 year)
Russia will likely continue to exploit internal division between the US, NATO, and the EU. Such actions include the continued support for Vucic and Dodik to increase regional presence and influence
