Iran and the Stability of the Middle East
29 January 2024
Summary
Iran’s expanding influence through proxies like Houthis risks further destabilising the region.
Overreach could turn public opinion against Iran domestically and in allied countries.
Iran may solidify control in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon if the status quo remains, changing the regional balance of power.
Since the start of the current conflict between Israel and Hamas that was initiated by Hamas on 7th October 2023, Iran has taken a strategic incentive to lead and command the ‘axis of resistance’ against Israel. With the recent unprecedented strikes carried out by Iran in Pakistan, Syria and Iraq, it is important to investigate whether Iran is expanding its ambitions to be a dominant regional power within the Middle East. This comes as Iran has expanded its military capabilities and influence by working closely with Russia and arming non-state actors like the Houthis with drones for them to control Western influence within the region.
If Iran continues expanding its sphere of influence and intervening in conflicts beyond its borders, it could further destabilize the region. This risks a more direct conflict with Israel and Western powers, and it also allows Iran to shape the region to its strategic interests, potentially at the expense of democratic movements. However, Iran's actions also carry risks, as overreach could turn public opinion against its regional ambitions domestically and in allied countries, especially since the Iranian election is coming up on the 1st March 2024.
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Forecast
Short-term: Iran can continue arming proxy militia groups and carry out strikes against Israel indirectly. This provocative approach risks miscalculation and escalation. This can become worse depending on who wins the next election within Iran.
Medium-term: If Iran faces limited international pushback, they may increase weapons transfers and intervene more directly in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. This could include deploying IRGC forces abroad, as indicated recently with the military personnel that died within Syria.
Long-term: Iran will work to solidify political and military influence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon while minimizing Western presence. If they succeed, Iran will be more likely to dominate the Middle East, changing the regional balance of power. This is important as Iraq signals to the US not to consider pulling troops out of Iraq and Turkey, to establish closer relations with Iran through the Israel and Hamas war.