Marco Garzia | 29 April 2024

Summary

• Two spy rings, one tied to China and one to Russia, have been uncovered in Germany, leading to the leak of confidential information and machinery to the Chinese Ministry of State Security (MSS). 

• These spy cases are examples of successful counterintelligence, yet they are the “tip of the iceberg”. 

• The ramifications of the Euro-Atlantic alliance remain to be seen, but this could lead to a repositioning of the European continent within the broader Sino-American competition. 

Europe has yet to find a cohesive posture among the increasing tensions between Washington and Beijing. Largely trying to balance between the two powerhouses, the continent maintains deep-seethed economic interests with China and strong military ties with the US. However, this week, two crucial European players, the United Kingdom and Germany, uncovered two different spy rings that were later linked back to China. Three German citizens were found to have been recruited by the Chinese Ministry of State Security (MSS) and were in operation between 2002 and 2022. Although their involvement appears to have mostly been motivated by monetary gains, as reportedly they were paid in the upper five figures, the case is suspected by authorities to be the proverbial “tip of the iceberg”.  

The trio managed to pass on confidential information used by China for military purposes as well as laser machinery of interest to the Chinese Navy. This happens less than a week after discovering another Russian spy ring. As much as both cases are examples of successful German counterintelligence, it must be noted that the ramifications of such events will likely affect the whole continent. In fact, the proximity of these three events might be interpreted by Washington as a security threat, potentially impacting the US’s willingness to share military technology with its European partners. Moreover, this might signal the extent of the existent Chinese encroachment within European countries, prompting the necessity to establish a firmer position in relation to this century-defining strategic competition.  

It remains to be seen how the directly and indirectly affected countries will react to these latest developments; however, increased scrutiny of Chinese nationals entering or living within their border might be employed. Yet, as most of these spy cases directly involved the respective countries’ citizens, it remains to be seen which preventative measures the local intelligence agencies will implement.

Forecast

• Short term

  • These cases will lead to additional investigations and near-future convictions, dismantling operational and non-operational spy rings within Germany.  

• Medium to long-term

  • If not brought under control, the extent of Chinese infiltration within Europe might end up becoming a strategic weakness for Washington, on whose military-industrial complex multiple European nations depend. Moreover, Chinese espionage might directly damage the European military-industrial complex, as military technologies are at heightened risk of being stolen.