Lara Inglis-Jones | 19 March 2024

Summary

• On 6th March, the Iran aligned militants Houthis, fired a missile at a Bajan flagged, Greek-operated Vessel, resulting in 3 fatalities and serious injuries to two crew members.    

• The UK and the US have since neutralized at least 28 attack drones. However, despite retaliatory strikes by the US and UK, the group persists in employing sophisticated weaponry such as ballistic missiles and "kamikaze drones." 

• It is highly likely that intensified attacks by the Houthis will lead to stronger countermeasures while increased disruptions in the Red Sea may result in higher shipping costs and global prices. Furthermore, shipping firms and oil companies are expected to divert their voyages from the Red Sea route. 

On 6th March, the Iran aligned militants, the Houthis’, fired a missile at the Barbados flagged Greek-operated True Confidence, setting it on fire. The attack occurred 50 miles off the southern Yemeni port of Aden, resulting in three fatalities and serious injuries to two crew members. Among the deceased were two Filipino nationals and one Vietnamese. The following day, an Indian warship transported all 20 crew members and three armed guards to a hospital in Djibouti.  

Since October, the Houthi rebel group, backed by Iran and aligned with Hamas, has been conducting a series of attacks on vessels in one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. The objective of the Houthis’ is to disrupt global supply chains in response to the current Israel–Hamas conflict. However, this attack highlights the first instance of civilian fatalities since the Houthi campaign in the Red Sea began. 

These intensified attacks by the Houthis have already prompted stronger reactions from the UK and US, leading to increased countermeasures against the group. In response to the 3 deaths last Wednesday, US coalition forces have already neutralised at least 28 attack drones. However, despite retaliatory strikes by the US and UK, the group persists in employing sophisticated weaponry such as ballistic missiles and "kamikaze drones." 

Furthermore, as the Houthis escalate their attacks, shipping firms and oil companies are expected to face heightened disruptions. With more than 23,000 ships a year passing through the Red Sea, accounting for around 12% of global trade, vessels will likely divert their voyages further delaying supply chains and pushing cost.  

Forecast

• Short-term: It is certain that the recent attacks will prompt stronger countermeasures against the Houthi group in response to the intensified attacks, notably concerning their drone attacks.

• Medium-term: It is highly likely that as the frequency and intensity of Houthi attacks continue, more shipping firms and oil companies will have to divert their voyages from the Red Sea. This delay will result in higher shipping costs and likely higher prices globally.  

• Long-term: The ongoing conflict between coalition forces and the Houthis will likely prompt countries including France, Spain, and Italy to join Operation Prosperity Guardian, the coalition which aims to safeguard the freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.