Crude Awakening: Nigeria’s Trans-Niger Pipeline Explosion Triggers State of Emergency in Rivers State
Aryana Ris-Luamháin | 12 April 2025
Summary
A state of emergency has been declared in Nigeria’s oil-rich Rivers State in response to an explosion on the Trans-Niger pipeline.
Escalating political tensions, further attacks on oil infrastructure and economic fallout could follow from the incident.
The situation is likely to worsen as the Nigerian government struggles to assert control.
Following an explosion on the Trans-Niger pipeline (TNP) in Nigeria’s oil-rich Rivers State, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has declared a state of emergency - suspending Govenor Sim Fubara, his deputy and the Rivers state parliament for the next 6 months.
TNP, jointly owned by Shell Petroleum Development Company and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, is a critical artery for crude oil transportation. It is 1 of 2 conduits that export crude oil produced by Africa’s biggest oil producer, Bonny Light, at approximately 450,000 barrels per day. Local authorities confirmed that a “thorough investigation to determine the cause” of the explosion is underway. While no group has claimed responsibility as of yet, authorities have made two arrests in connection with the incident
This attack is the latest in a series of assaults on Nigeria’s oil infrastructure. Oil pipeline attacks have long been used by political factions and militant groups who are driven by political and economic grievances. Moreover, 400,000 barrels of crude oil are stolen per day to be sold by members of the local population. These recurring incidents have already led to a number of major oil companies divesting their onshore and shallow-water assets, opting instead for deep-water operations, which are deemed to be more secure - despite higher operating costs The incident comes amidst escalating political tensions in Rivers State as Governor Sim Fubara battles an ongoing power struggle with Nyesom Wike, his predecessor, who is currently a minister in Tinubu’s cabinet.
Although operations on the Trans-Niger pipeline were restored on 25 March, Tinubu declared a state of emergency in response - suspending Govenor Sim Fubara, his deputy and the Rivers state parliament for the next 6 months. Tinubo justified the move by citing "disturbing security reports detailing incidents of vandalisation of pipelines by some militants without the governor taking any action to curtail them". However, the Nigerian Bar Association has condemned the decision as ‘unconstitutional’, and critics argue that it is politically motivated.
Further attacks on pipelines and oil facilities remain a significant risk, with escalating violence potentially leading to further disruption and deterring investment. Nigeria is already grappling with a severe economic crisis, with the Nigerian Naira losing 70% of its value in 20233 and 2024. Continued disruptions to production and exports could therefore cripple the economy, especially given that oil and gas exports constitute half of Nigeria’s government budget. The situation also entails global consequences. As Nigeria is one of Africa’s largest oil producers, disruptions to its supply chain will contribute to price volatility in international oil markets.
Additionally, these attacks place further strain on Nigeria’s electricity grid and energy supply. Shortly after the recent TNP explosion, for example, a number of Nigerian electricity companies announced widespread disruptions and reduced power supply. This is especially concerning considering Nigeria’s power grid already suffers from frequent blackouts, with the national grid collapsing 11 times in 2024 alone.
Kalabarian/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
Given the current political climate, further attacks on Nigeria’s oil infrastructure are likely. While the state of emergency and heavy military presence may offer short-term deterrents, the underlying tensions in the region suggest that the risk of future disruptions is still high. Consequently, Nigeria's oil production is likely to face ongoing setbacks.
Legal and civil society groups are likely to continue challenging the state of emergency on constitutional grounds, potentially leading to social unrest in Lagos and Rivers State.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
Tensions between the federal government and state-level leaders are likely to escalate. The ongoing power struggle between the authorities and Fubara may lead to legal battles, protests and increased resistance from political factions.
Investors in Nigeria’s oil sector are likely to become more cautious, leading to further divestments from onshore and shallow projects.
