Assassination of Mikhail Gudkov, Russian Navy Commander
Lily Donahue | 18 July 2025
Summary
Mikhail Gudkov, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, was assassinated - making him one of the highest-ranking Russian officials to die since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.
His once-elite 155th brigade became known for dysfunction, being reconstituted up to 8 times in 3 years due to massive casualties and requiring “blocking units” to prevent retreats.
Should Ukraine’s ability to craft inventive operations and hit high-ranking targets continue, it may give them a slight edge in future negotiations.
Mikhail Gudkov, the Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, has been killed by a Ukrainian HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) strike near Kursk, Russia. One of the highest-ranking Russian officials to have been assassinated since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Gudkov had been accused of war crimes by the Ukrainian military, including the mass slaughter of civilians in Bucha in 2022. He had been awarded the title of “Hero of Russia” for his command during the 2022 siege on Mariupol, and subsequently praised by Russian President Vladimir Putin as a model to emulate.
Described by the Kremlin as having died during unspecified “combat work,” Gudkov is not the first Russian officer to have been assassinated by Ukraine. Lieutenant General and head of the Russian chemical, biological and radiological weapons unit Igor Kirillov - accused of overseeing the use of banned World War I era chloropicrin - was killed by an explosive planted in an electric scooter in December 2024. His colleague, Lieutenant General Yaroslav Moskali,k was killed four months later by a car bomb in the Moscow Oblast city of Balashikha.
Gudkov was the former head of the 155th naval infantry brigade, promoted to Deputy Commander in March. Once considered an elite military unit, the 155th is now marred by claims of probable war crimes - including the civilian killings at Bucha, the reported beheading of Ukrainian soldiers and the execution of two Ukrainian photojournalists, one by immolation. Less damningly, the brigade has been dismissed as dysfunctional and composed of poorly-trained conscripts, promoted due to high casualties from Russia’s strategy of attritional warfare; Ukrainian soldiers have described the steady turnover of the 155th as “endless.” That the 155th appears interminable is less to do, however, with numbers than with the reality that it is a unit that burns through its soldiers, a fact that has meant brigade operations are likened to “meat assaults.” The 3,000-troop unit has been reconstituted up to 8 times in the past 3 years. When 155th has advanced, its paltry success has stemmed more from an inability to retreat than from military prowess. The few city blocks the 155th gained in the Ukrainian village of Novomykhailivka were secured by a “blocking unit” following the soldiers-snipers who would shoot any fellow soldier who pulled back.
Ukraine’s HIMARS attack emphasises a rebalancing in military superiority. Prior to the deployment of US-provided systems, Russian forces demonstrated comprehensive surveillance and engagement capabilities against Ukrainian positions. Russian UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) effectively forced Ukrainian infantry to adopt dispersed tactical formations, as any concentration of forces above company level would be readily identified and targeted. While HIMARS has given Ukraine a significant advantage, the Russian military is accordingly adaptable. The Kremlin anticipates that tactical integration of suicide drones and air defence will enhance its artillery forces, crucial for a country with high casualties that the state has stopped publishing mortality and life expectancy data for its male population. Recent tactics suggest that Russia is aiming to advance through limited envelopments rather than continue their initial attempt at deep penetration of Ukrainian territory.
Though a significant escalation for the war, it is unlikely this news will cause many ripples within Russia, as the public is largely indifferent to or even actively distanced from political life. Given the Kremlin's established pattern of suppressing casualty reporting—as seen during the 2022 partial mobilisation—this incident is unlikely to generate significant public discourse within Russia.
Still, mythologisation is rife, as the Kremlin crafts a hero out of an accused war criminal. Gudkov has been posthumously re-awarded the title of Hero of the Russian Federation, making him the first to receive the honour twice. Acting governor of the Kursk region, Alexander Khinshtein, has been especially vocal. “People like [Gudkov] do not die. They remain dangerous to enemies even after death.” His death, Khinshtein posited, will trigger operational success: “With his name, our Marines will now smash the Nazi scum with redoubled force. New generations will grow up on Gudkov's example, for whom he will become a legend.”
Ferid Faiqoglu/pexels
Forecast
Short-term (Now - 3 months)
There is a realistic possibility Russia will retaliate through intensified strikes on Ukrainian military and civilian targets.
Russia’s naval operations coordination - particularly in the Black Sea region - will likely be strained.
Medium-term (3-12 months)
The 155th, already plagued by heavy attrition, will likely suffer a further loss of morale and subsequently, operational effectiveness.
Long-term (>1 year)
Ukraine has demonstrated an increased capacity to strike high-ranking, high-value targets, which has a realistic possibility of affecting negotiation positions.
