Ranson Lo | 16 April 2024

Summary

• All 50 seats of the National Parliament will be elected on 17th April by the 420,000 registered voters.

• The election was scheduled in 2023 and delayed by Prime Minister Sogavare based on the lack of state capacity to hold elections and the Pacific Games in the same year, causing outrage among the population and opposition.

• If Sogavare’s Ownership, Unity and Responsibility Party (OUR Party) wins the election, the Solomon Islands will likely continue their increasingly pro-China foreign policy, further escalating regional tensions amid the US-China rivalry.

Solomon Islands will hold their 12th general elections since its independence from the U.K. in July 1978. The election, initially scheduled for 2023 , has been delayed by PM Sogavare, who claimed that the country could not host the Pacific Games and the elections in the same year, which caused outrage and protests led by the opposition. Despite being one of the smallest countries in the world, the Solomon Islands have shifted the geopolitical balance in the Pacific with Sogavare’s secret security deal with China in 2021. The deal has since opened a new theatre in the U.S.-China rivalry.

Country Profile

Economy

• GDP: USD 1.79 billion (2023)

• GDP per capita: USD 2,370 (2023)

• HDI: 0.564 (2021)

• Official currency: Solomon Islands dollar (SBD)

Demography

• Population: 0.76 million (2023)

• Ethnic composition (2019)

  • 94.5% Melanesian, 3% Polynesian and 1.2% Micronesia

• Religion (2019)

  • 73% Protestant, 20% Catholic and 5% Animalist

Electoral System

• 50 seats in the unicameral National Assembly elected for four-year terms.

• All seats are elected by first-past-the-post system in single-seat constituencies.

• The National Assembly elects the Prime Minister as the de facto governor, as the Solomon Islands recognise the British monarch Charles III as head of state.

• Out-of-country votes are not allowed.

Major Political Parties & Candidates

• Ownership, Unity and Responsibility Party (OUR Party) 

• Leader: PM Manasseh Sogavare

• The party was established in 2010 but did not participate in elections prior.

• Right-wing - supports conservative social values and advocates against same-sex marriage.

• The party prioritises foreign policy and advocates for strengthening cooperation with China while preserving existing ties with Australia.

• Coalition for Accountability, Reform and Empowerment (CARE)

• Leader: Matthew Wale, an MP since 2008, filed a no-confidence motion against Sogavare in 2019.

• The opposition coalition formed between the Democratic Alliance and the Solomon Islands Democratic Party (SIDP), has11 seats combined in the current legislature.

• Left-wing - supports expanding public health services, implementing free education, and creating jobs through government-led infrastructure projects.

• Kadere Party

• Leader: Peter Boyers, the former finance minister between 2005 and 2006.

• Largest party with 8 seats in the current legislature together with SIDP.

• Previously allied with Sogavare’s governing coalition.

• Focuses on economic transformation and advocates for the country's industrialisation from the current extraction economy.

Although the Solomon Islands is one of the smallest and least populated countries, this election has significant implications for the island nation's future and the wider impacts on the U.S.-China rivalry, especially regarding the competition in the Asia Pacific. 

Since the Second World War ended, the Pacific has traditionally been regarded as Australia's and the U.S.'s spheres of influence. However, China’s increasingly present and aggressive foreign policy has pressured the region. Since Sogavare’s switch from recognising Taiwan to China as the legitimate and official Chinese in 2019, the two countries have signed a security agreement allowing Chinese security forces to be deployed and operate on the island. Sogavare’s government has also strengthened economic ties with China by granting the China Civil Engineering Construction Company, the sole bidder, a USD 170 million project to upgrade the Honiara port in March 2023. 

On the other hand, Australia has been one of the largest foreign investors and donors to the Solomon Islands. Alongside AUD 171 million (USD 111 million) in aid and subsidies granted by the Official Development Assistance in 2023-24, and the Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility for the Pacific to rebuild Solomon Island’s post-COVID-19 economy, Canberra has also led the Regional Assistance Mission in Solomon Islands (RAMSI) to support and stabilise the island nation after the series of civil unrests in 1998-2003.

The wider geopolitical rivalry has also impacted the Solomon Islands profoundly by resulting in protests against Sogavare’s government in 2021, as the public expressed their dissent towards Sogavare’s switch to recognise Beijing, the post-pandemic cost of living crisis and corruption. The protests resulted in three civilian deaths and the deployment of security forces from Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, and New Zealand to stabilise the situation and restore order. Sogavare was accused of receiving up to AUD 3 million (USD 1.95 million) in bribes from groups affiliated with the Chinese government to pursue pro-Chinese policies. Transparency, in general, has also deteriorated in the past years under Sogavare’s administration, as illustrated by the lack of auditor reports on government finances and the police force since 2019, indicating the potential problem of deep-rooted corruption within the governing and public institutions.

Forecast

• Short-term

• It is highly likely none of the parties will secure a majority in the election. Hence, the next government will likely be a coalition of parties as the incumbent Sogavare administration.

• Post-election unrest and violence are likely due to public dissent against Sogavare’s government over the increasing ties with China and corruption allegations. The Solomon Islands have also experienced unrest after the previous election in 2019

• Medium-term

• If Sogavare and the OUR Party win the election, it is highly likely that democratic governance and transparency will continue to deteriorate, as illustrated throughout Sogavare’s administration.

• Long-term

  • Regardless of the winner, the next government will likely continue to increase economic and geopolitical cooperation with China to attract more investment and rebuild the economy, which has been severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and is increasingly threatened by climate change.